Scenario thinking

Scenarios, uncertainty, and invalidation

A short guide to thinking in possible paths while remembering that scenarios are not predictions.

A scenario describes one possible path. It is not a forecast, guarantee, or instruction to act.

Invalidation describes conditions that would make a scenario less useful or no longer relevant.

Probability is not certainty. Even a reasonable scenario can fail when market conditions change.

Considering more than one possible path can reduce tunnel vision and make uncertainty easier to handle.

Scenario thinking supports independent review. It should not replace personal judgement, risk limits, or broader validation.

Educational content only. Not investment advice, trading advice, or signals.